I swear, I had nothing to do with it! Those of you who read my blog last week may remember I ruminated about the contrasts of the Juneteenth observance with Putin and his complex relationship with the Russian people. Little did I know…
On Saturday, Harriet and I drove up to Philly for a family event, transfixed as we listened to the blow-by-blow accounts coming from Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin challenged the Russian military’s efficiency in the Ukraine, the rationale for the “Special Operation” in the Ukraine, and posed the first significant challenge to Putin in the past two decades. Before the day was over, his Wagner militia had moved to within 120 miles of Moscow before a brokered deal ended the threat of imminent violence. However, Putin’s veneer of invulnerability has been stripped of its sheen, and the future of his rule is suddenly uncertain.
To be clear, none of key players in this military psychodrama are innocent lambs. They are ruthless, cruel and profoundly greedy creatures of power with no clear evidence of nobility or scruples. Those who root for Prigozhin in his dispute with Putin should be careful of what they wish. Prigozhin is, as far as I can discern, an absolute monster. For all we know, he would prefer that the Russian military be more effective in its malignant quest.
This all reminds me of malignant evolution in the worst possible way. Under Putin, Russia has been locally invasive (see the Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia), and has somewhat ineffectively tried to metastasize around the world. It has been sustained by the twin nutrients of fossil fuel money and control of information, linked to a permissive environment that sustains the malignant status quo. Putin, the dominant malignant clone, has spawned oligarch and military subclones, which scarf up more than their fair shares of the essential nutrients. No doubt, some of these subclones harbor visions of domination, but have had insufficient essential nutrients to emerge.
By invading the Ukraine, Putin made the grave miscalculation of outgrowing his blood supply, stimulating a powerful and coordinated “immune” response led by the United States and NATO, who remembered the past and were determined to combat this attack on world order and human rights. Under the persistent selection pressure applied by this coalition, the vulnerabilities of Putin — the dominant clone of this malignant politic — have been exposed. So, guess what? Now a heretofore subdominant clone — Prigozhin — has emerged. Hopefully, he enjoys exile in Belarus. But make no mistake, other subdominant clones lie in wait, licking their chops.
Chaos in a nuclear power is nothing to desire, and a weakened Putin might be preferable to an emboldened right-wing lunatic. Perhaps the subdominant clones won’t yield a useful alternative. But, as with effective cancer immunotherapy, perhaps the continuous application of adaptable and sufficient political and economic selection pressure, combined with effective military deterrence, can make Russia’s neighbors and the rest of the world safe and give the Russian people the opportunity to make wise choices regarding their country’s future.
We may not be able to cure this particular cancer, but I certainly hope it can be controlled.
Stay safe and be well.
Lou
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